Summary of the article
The sewerage figures are increasing strongly. But the ratio of these numbers to hospital admissions continues to decline. It should also mean that there is less attention paid to it. Interesting how big the pressure will be to introduce national measures.
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This week, the RIVM raised the thermometer a value (from 1 to 2). And through media appearances, the alarm bells are ringing again, like Minister Kuipers at OP1 last night. Both with the call to take the booster vaccination as soon as possible and to comply with the basic measures.
When you ask the interviewers questions, you also feel a new pressure to take action. Fortunately, we don’t see that happening here yet, but of course it already does in Germany. Minister Lauterbach is trying to persuade the separate “Länder” to make face masks (and not the simple blue ones) compulsory again outside of public transport.
Here and there little is done to put the increase in the numbers into perspective, otherwise the pressure from the message “get the new booster quickly” weakens.
I will try to balance the situation using a data analysis of the current situation.
The test numbers say nothing about the development of the spread of the virus. Only a small proportion of the infected are still tested at GGD. But the development in the number of virus particles in the waste water is a good indicator.
If you look at the figures for the virus particles in the waste water, you can see that there has been a sharp increase since 20 September. Currently, we are close to the values of the waves in late January and mid-July. This is the overview of the sewerage figures for this year (the Omikron period).
But much more important than these figures are the figures for hospitalizations. Of particular importance is the relationship between the number of people who get an infection and the number of people who end up in hospital. In the graph below, I have placed the new hospital admissions in red within the graph of the waste water values.
This combo chart shows that the relationship between hospitalizations and virus particles has been different since May than in the first four months. Hospital admissions have almost halved compared to the virus values. We are now over 100 a day and in March it was over 250 a day. Plus, if we look at the age distribution of hospitalizations, there are now also relatively more over 70s than in March.
Now there are several possible reasons for that halving. But I think it is most likely that the proportion of reinfections is clearly increasing and that the severity of the infection decreases further with the reinfections. A clear proof of the endemic nature of this virus at the moment.
Additionally, we see something striking about that graph. Please note that there have been no further measures in the Netherlands since February. But we see that after the three peaks (the beginning of February, the end of March and the middle of July), the numbers also fell quickly again. This rapid fall happened without action and also without people becoming extra careful again .
It is time for the media to stop being so gassy about the rise in Corona numbers. There are other important issues.
And you have to be aware that this kind of reporting again instills fear in a part of the population, which is not only unrealistic, but also not good for your well-being.
However, I do not think that the government, especially if completely different mutations do not occur, will announce collective measures again. But you have to be vigilant, because with the different agendas of those who are more often in the media, you know they will keep trying, through the fear in society, to execute on their agenda.
Because people until now have invoked ‘science’, they are obviously now using ‘common sense’. Because this was Kuipers’ response to questions arising from the lack of evaluations of measures taken in the Netherlands.